the application of reliability reallocation model in traffic safety analysis on rural roads

Abstract

© 2019 Silesian University of Technology. All Rights Reserved. The number of accidents on rural roads still represents a higher percentage of accidents than those occurring on built-up areas and motorways. Many countries are working on the definition and implementation of strategies that relate to the improvement of traffic safety on rural roads. This paper presents an approach to the analysis of traffic safety and the frequency of traffic accidents. The developed model is based on reliability theory and the application of the reliability reallocation model on data concerning traffic accidents that have occurred on rural roads. To test the model, a state road made up of 20 sections of a total length of 255 km was selected. The analysis of traffic safety on the observed road covers the period between the years 2005 and 2013 (this period is divided into two intervals 2005-2009 and 2010-2013). Following the basic analyses of traffic safety that are positioned in a space-time coordinate system, the next step is the reliability analysis and the ranking of the section. In this paper, the reallocation method was observed from the aspect of the reduction in accident frequency by 10% and the application of the ARINC apportionment technique.