Sophisticated estimation of damages due to outage costs in industry, by method of technological process simulation

Abstract

This paper presents a method for estimation of damages, suffered by consumers in industry due to failure in supply of electrical energy. For estimation is used pseudo-statistical method, Monte Carlo. The method is illustrated by the example of the industrial consumer in the cement industry. Developed methodology for damage estimation has been considered on the example of technologically interrelated subsystems where exist accumulation of material (raw materia], semiproducts) and it is also applicable in the case of technological subsystems where does not exist material accumulation. For the observed industrial consumer as a result of the applied methodology the survey of damage dependance on outage power as well as damage dependance on outage time period is given. It is shown that damage has stohastic character provided that it is greater if in the outage moment the use intensity of technological subsystem is smaller, i.e. the outaged power is smaller. In addition to the said dependance, in the paper is also given the example for damage determination in case of outage of one technological subsystem which fills in its own material accumulation, and which is connected with other technological subsystems. Damage that occurs in this case depends first of all on use intensity of technological subsystem which for its production uses material from the accumulation as well as on quantity of accumulated material in accumulation stock in the moment of outage occurance. ©2003 IEEE.