Emerging markets - galapagos for behavioral financial research

Abstract

In this paper an analysis of investors' and portfolio managers' psychological characteristics has been undertaken in order to evaluate future movement of index value at stock market. At emerging stock markets the significant high noise does not exist and changes are of recognizable character. Emerging stock markets are convenient for studying the basic legality that rules at financial stock markets. By analyzing the behavior and future index value predictions of portfolio managers and investors at Belgrade stock exchange, we prove that correlated direction of change in investors' sentiments with real values of directed change in stock market index is negatively correlated. The results of the research show that unrealistic optimism and unrealistic pessimism of investors at stock markets in emerging countries are present. Further study of factors which influence decision-makers will be about creating new models for more successful evaluation and prediction of stock market movements. © Snezana Sando, Mladen Radišić, Dusan Dobromirov, 2012.