Expected mid- and long-term changes in drought hazard for the south-eastern carpathian basin

Abstract

In recent decades, the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe has experienced droughts that have had serious socio-economic and environmental consequences. The present study aims to evaluate the mid- and long-term severity and frequency of droughts associated with climate change in the mostly exposed south-eastern part of the Carpathian Basin from an agricultural perspective. To estimate the changes, projected future climate data derived from the ALADIN and REMO regional climate models were used. The Palfai Drought Index (PaDI) was calculated, and the spatial differences and temporal tendencies were analysed. Based on the results, increased drought severity and frequency is expected for the end of the century. At present, drought years are characterised by moderate droughts (PaDI 6-8). In the future, the frequency of such moderate PaDI years might significantly decrease and may be replaced by more serious drought events. In the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, approximately 6-13 years and 9-17 years out of the two 30-year periods, respectively, are expected to be serious (PaDI values >10). The continuous development of the socio-economic system changes the pressure on food production; thus, consumers and producers should have valid, high spatial resolution information on the severity and spatial distribution of drought hazards. Therefore, the development of an early warning system that provides real-time information on agricultural and hydrological aspects at the local or county level would be highly welcomed in this region.