Biogeographical estimates of allergenic pollen transport over regional scales: Common ragweed and Szeged, Hungary as a test case

Abstract

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. Long-distance pollen transport can substantially raise local pollen levels, but their relative contribution has not yet been quantified temporally or spatially in ragweed infested regions. Using common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) pollen accumulation at a ragweed infested area, Szeged, Hungary as a test case, this study attempted to: (1) identify, using cluster analysis, biogeographical regions that contribute to long-range transport of ragweed pollen to Szeged; (2) quantify the relative contribution of ragweed pollen from these regions; (3) determine the relative contribution of "local" and "transported" pollen for Szeged. Using the HYSPLIT model, three-dimensional backward trajectories were produced daily over a 5-year period, 2009-2013 for ragweed pollen accumulation at Szeged. A k-means clustering algorithm using the Mahalanobis distance was applied in order to develop trajectory types. Nine back-trajectory clusters were identified. Cluster 1 (direction: from the Channel area south of Great Britain) and cluster 5 (direction: from Northern Mediterranean) were found the most relevant potential long-distance sources for Ambrosia pollen transport to Szeged. Potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) values indicated additional potential source areas including the central and eastern part of France, the northern part of Italy and the Carpathian Basin. For Szeged on non-rainy days, medium-range transport is important, while on rainy days the two transport ranges have equal weights. Based on the Granger causality, annual pollen amount transported by the atmospheric circulation is 27.8% of the annual total pollen at Szeged. From this quantity, 7.5% is added to (due to transport), while 20.3% is subtracted from (e.g. because of wash-out by frontal rainfalls going towards Szeged) local sources.