The variability of extreme temperatures and their relationship with atmospheric circulation: the contribution of applying linear and quadratic models

Abstract

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Wien. This paper presents an analysis of the homogenised mean maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. The data used in the analysis were collected at eight stations in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) during the 1949–2008 period. The trends obtained from the slopes of the regression lines using the least square method show 0.9 °C/60 years for Tmax and 1.1 °C/60 years for Tmin; the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the statistically significant increasing trends of these two extreme parameters. In this paper, we analyse the influence of the Vangengeim–Girs classification of atmospheric circulation on the Tmax and Tmin trends in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) using linear and quadratic models based on the least square method. Linear stepwise regression and the forward method reveal the highest dependence of Tmax and Tmin when the W or E circulation types are included in the model. Non-linear models show a greater contribution of Tmax and Tmin at W, E and C circulation types, respectively. The correction of the variance contribution of quadratic models ranges from approximately 16 to 44 % for Tmax and 32 to 38 % for Tmin.