Seasonality in human mortality: Results for the city of novi sad (Serbia)

Abstract

© by the Demographic Research Centre of the Institute of Social Sciences & the Association of Demographers of Serbia. Seasonal variation in mortality has long been recognized and confirmed in diverse studies by demographers, climatologists, medics, sociologists etc. Existing research suggests that most world regions experience increase in mortality during winter period and that countries and regions in temperate climate have higher winter mortality than regions in colder climate. As well, numerous studies have so far demonstrated temperature-related mortality associations with increased risk due to both heat-related and cold-related death. The objective of this paper is to research seasonal variations in mortality due to seasonal changes in average air temperature among urban population of Novi Sad (Serbia). The analysis covered the period between 1953 and 2013 for both total and old population (65 and over) by gender and for all-cause mortality, while causes of death were observed only for the 1998-2013 period. This paper considers only cardiovascular diseases I00-I99 (CVD) according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD, version 10). Seasonal changes in mortality were observed using the coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) while the data were split into five periods in order to research temporal changes. Results for CSVM indicated that mortality in winter period was higher than mortality in non-winter periods, whilst the analysis of the temperature-related mortality suggests that low temperature caused an increase in mortality over the entire year. Despite the confirmed seasonal changes in mortality and the evidence for temperature-related mortality, this research has recognized a declining trend in population vulnerability over time.