Prediction of current species distribution of Cheilosia proxima group (Diptera: Syrphidae) on the Balkan Peninsula

Abstract

Predicting species distribution in different climates is most often made by climate models (“climate envelope models” - CEM) which are using the current geographical distribution of species and climate characteristics of the area. Hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera: Syrphidae) can act as bioindicators and monitors of climate change and habitat quality. Cheilosia Meigen, 1822 is one of the largest hoverflies genera, with about 450 described species. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of six species from Cheilosia proxima group on the Balkan Peninsula (Cheilosia aerea Dufour, 1848, C. balkana Vujić, 1994, C. gigantea Zetterstedt, 1838, C. pascuorum Becker, 1894, C. proxima Zetterstedt, 1843 and C. rufimana Becker, 1894) using maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). It is observed that parameters with highest influence on the analyzed species are Altitude and BIO 15 (Precipitation Seasonality) for all species, except C. rufimana. Parameter that also substantially influenced for all species, except C. pascuorum, is BIO 18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter). The models of current distribution have shown that the most important area of the Balkan Peninsula, for species from Cheilosia proxima group, is Dinaric mountains. Information obtained in this paper can help in future monitoring of species, as well as for the conservation measures, especially for endemics and rare species.