Modelling the influence of meteorological conditions on mosquito vector population dynamics (Diptera, Culicidae)

Abstract

<p>Meteorological&nbsp; conditions&nbsp; have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significant influence on the time of occurrence, abundance and activity of the mosquito vector. In the current context of climate change, it is of great importance to assess the&nbsp; impact&nbsp; of&nbsp; shifts&nbsp; in&nbsp; climatic&nbsp; conditions&nbsp; on&nbsp; the suitability for the establishment and annual activity of&nbsp; the&nbsp; vector&nbsp; species.&nbsp; Moreover,&nbsp; changes&nbsp; in&nbsp; the variability&nbsp; of&nbsp; meteorological&nbsp; elements&nbsp; and&nbsp; their extremes&nbsp; can&nbsp; generate&nbsp; unexpected&nbsp; changes&nbsp; in&nbsp; the mosquito&nbsp; vector&nbsp; population&nbsp; which&nbsp; in&nbsp; turn&nbsp; have&nbsp; an&nbsp; important effect on human health. One of the ways to put&nbsp; these&nbsp; causes&nbsp; and&nbsp; effects&nbsp; into&nbsp; perspective&nbsp; is&nbsp; to simulate the activity of the vector within a processbased framework which allows for the analysis of the contribution of individual factors on the different life stages of the vector. Such analysis is presented by use of&nbsp; sophisticated&nbsp; dynamical&nbsp; models&nbsp; simulating&nbsp; the characteristics of the biological population, forced by observed&nbsp; meteorological&nbsp; data,&nbsp; capturing&nbsp; the&nbsp; localmicro-environment&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; vector&nbsp; habitat,&nbsp; and validated by the observed entomology.Numerical&nbsp; models&nbsp; are&nbsp; being&nbsp; developed&nbsp; to&nbsp; model vector&nbsp; population&nbsp; dynamics&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; expected circulation of the virus within a closed system. Two modelling&nbsp; approaches&nbsp; are&nbsp; standardly&nbsp; applied&nbsp; to modelling vector population dynamics: Mechanistic and&nbsp; Stochastic.&nbsp; The&nbsp; advantage&nbsp; of&nbsp; mechanistic&nbsp; over<br />statistical&nbsp; models&nbsp; is&nbsp; that&nbsp; they&nbsp; can&nbsp; provide&nbsp; a deterministic&nbsp; framework&nbsp; allowing&nbsp; for&nbsp; the&nbsp; isolated evaluation of each input parameter and their effect on the modelled system. Mechanistic dynamical models are used to describe the biophysical processes or part<br />of&nbsp; the&nbsp; process&nbsp; as&nbsp; a&nbsp; response&nbsp; to&nbsp; changes&nbsp; in&nbsp; the meteorological conditions.<br />The&nbsp; work&nbsp; carried&nbsp; out&nbsp; in&nbsp; this&nbsp; thesis&nbsp; can&nbsp; be summarized as follows: (i) Analysis of the association between&nbsp; the&nbsp; most&nbsp; important&nbsp; abiotic&nbsp; drivers influencing the population dynamics, annual activity and&nbsp; time&nbsp; of&nbsp; occurrence&nbsp; of Culex&nbsp; pipiens and Aedes aegypti;&nbsp; (ii)&nbsp; Identifying&nbsp; the&nbsp; most&nbsp; important&nbsp; climatic factors and model settings as a function of climatic characteristics of the study region; (iii) Modelling the vector population dynamics and stability analysis of the&nbsp; dynamical&nbsp; system&nbsp; (iv)&nbsp; Analysis&nbsp; of&nbsp; different verification techniques and implications in terms of model&nbsp; application;&nbsp; (v)&nbsp; Feasibility&nbsp; analysis&nbsp; of<br />improving&nbsp; the&nbsp; model&nbsp; with&nbsp; a&nbsp; Land-Surface Parametrization scheme and short-range forecasting of pest population dynamics.</p>

<p>Meteorolo&scaron;ki&nbsp; uslovi&nbsp; bitno&nbsp; utiču&nbsp; na&nbsp; vreme&nbsp; pojave, brojnost&nbsp; vektora&nbsp; i&nbsp; njihovu&nbsp; aktivnost.&nbsp; U&nbsp; uslovima evidentnih promene klime, od ogromne je važnosti sagledati&nbsp; uticaj&nbsp; očekivanih&nbsp; promena&nbsp; klime&nbsp; na pogodnost&nbsp; uslova&nbsp; na&nbsp; pojavu&nbsp; izabranih&nbsp; vektora.<br />Takodje, značajne promene kolebanja meteorolo&scaron;kih elemenata&nbsp; u&nbsp; odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; vi&scaron;egodi&scaron;nji&nbsp; prosek&nbsp; i&nbsp; sve če&scaron;će pojave nepovoljnih vremenskih prilika dovode do neočekivanog pona&scaron;anja populacije komarca &scaron;to značajno&nbsp; utiče&nbsp; na&nbsp; kvalitet&nbsp; života&nbsp; i&nbsp; zdravlje&nbsp; ljudi. Jedini&nbsp; način&nbsp; da&nbsp; se&nbsp; sagledaju&nbsp; uzroci&nbsp; i&nbsp; posledice navedenih pojava zasniva se na simulaciji aktivnosti i&nbsp; brojnosti&nbsp; vektora&nbsp; uz&nbsp; mogućnost&nbsp; testiranja&nbsp; uticaja svakog&nbsp; pojedinačnog&nbsp; faktora.&nbsp; Ovu&nbsp; mogućnost pružaju samo visoko sofistikovani dinamički modeli koju su pro&scaron;li proces kalibracije i validacije zasnovan<br />na izmerenim vrednostima meteorolo&scaron;kih elemenata i karakteristika biolo&scaron;ke populacije.<br />Sofistikovani&nbsp; modeli&nbsp; za&nbsp; simulaciju&nbsp; dinamike populacije vektora i očekivane cirkulacije vektorskih transmisivnih bolesti se koriste sa ciljem modeliranja potencijalnog rizika od zaraze i epidemije. Modeli zasimulaciju dinamike vektora mogu da se podele na dve&nbsp; glavne&nbsp; grupe:&nbsp; Mehanističke&nbsp; i&nbsp; Statističke. Prednost&nbsp; mehanističkih&nbsp; modela&nbsp; nad&nbsp; statističkim&nbsp; je &scaron;to&nbsp; mogu&nbsp; da&nbsp; se&nbsp; koriste&nbsp; za&nbsp; evaluaciju&nbsp; uticaja izolovanog&nbsp; faktora&nbsp; na&nbsp; dinamički&nbsp; sistem&nbsp; i odgovarajuće promene brojnosti unutar svake faze u razvoju&nbsp; vektora.&nbsp; Mehanistički&nbsp; dinamički&nbsp; sistemi&nbsp; se koriste&nbsp; kako&nbsp; bi&nbsp; se&nbsp; opisao&nbsp; mehanizam&nbsp; biofizičkog procesa&nbsp; ili&nbsp; dela&nbsp; procesa&nbsp; u&nbsp; zavisnosti&nbsp; od&nbsp; forsirajuće veličine.<br />Predmet&nbsp; istraživanja&nbsp; u&nbsp; ovom&nbsp; radu&nbsp; jeste identifikovanje&nbsp; najznačajnijih&nbsp; biolo&scaron;kih&nbsp; i&nbsp; fizičkih procesa&nbsp; kao&nbsp; i&nbsp; odgovarajućih&nbsp; faktora&nbsp; koji&nbsp; utiču&nbsp; na brojnost i aktivnost vektora roda Aedes i Culex. Ciljevi istraživanja mogu da se sumiraju na sledeći način: (i)<br />analiza najznačajnijih meteorolo&scaron;kih parametara koji utiču na vreme pojave, brojnost i aktivnost vektora Aedes&nbsp; i&nbsp; Culex&nbsp; roda;&nbsp; (ii)&nbsp; definisanje&nbsp; najznačajnijih klimatskih&nbsp; faktora&nbsp; i&nbsp; stepena&nbsp; osetljivosti&nbsp; procesa&nbsp; na njih; (iii) modeliranje dinamike populacije vektora i analiza&nbsp; stabilnosti&nbsp; dinamičkog&nbsp; sistema;&nbsp;&nbsp; (iv) verifikacija&nbsp; i&nbsp; analiza&nbsp; metoda&nbsp; verifikacije&nbsp; i&nbsp; validacije dinamičkog&nbsp; modela;&nbsp; (v)&nbsp; kratkoročna&nbsp; prognoza dinamike&nbsp; populacije&nbsp; komarca&nbsp; i&nbsp; formulacija hidrolo&scaron;kog modula upotrebom SURFEX povr&scaron;inske<br />&scaron;eme sa ECOCLIMAP fiziogeografskim podacima.</p>