Contribution to research of droughts in Vojvodina Province

Abstract

Complete stochastic analysis of droughts, which are defined here as the upper extremes of the rainless periods is carried out in this paper. All important components of drought period processes such as their total number in a given time interval-growing season, their average number, their duration, the longest rainless period and its time of occurrence are obtained by analysis for meteorological station Rimski Šančevi, Vojvodina Province. Comparisons of drought analysis for two different periods for the same meteorological station are carried out: Period A: 1949-1985 and Period B: 1986-2010. Good agreement is found between the theoretical and empirical distribution functions for all analyzed components of the process for both analysed periods. On the basis of obtained results it is possible to conclude that there are in average more than two droughts during whole growing season for period B and less than two for period A. The average period without rain exceeding 15 days is 23.8 days for period A and 24.5 days for period B. Simple diagrams of return periods of drought durations are also obtained. The period of second half of August and first half of September is the part of the growing season that has the highest probability of having the longest drought for both analyzed periods. Comparison of drought analysis revealed that the droughts in Vojvodina Province were common and also bigger for the period B, which means after 1986.